What we all know — and what we do not — about Tuesday’s Georgia…

WASHINGTON — We don’t know who’s going to win Tuesday’s twin Senate runoffs in Georgia — given the shut preliminary ends in November, the shut and scarce polling, and the uncertainties about turnout in January.

But right here’s what we do know:

  • The consequence will determine which social gathering controls the U.S. Senate. (If Democrats win each, they’ll retake management of the chamber; in the event that they don’t, Republicans will maintain on.)
  • Which social gathering controls the Senate will form what sort of insurance policies we’ll see from the incoming Biden administration. (See under for extra on that.)
  • Who wins tonight will inform us quite a bit about Trump’s political viability and fortunes in 2022 and 2024. (The GOP dropping these two contests — and Senate management — after what’s occurred within the last two months gained’t look good on Trump’s resume. By distinction, the GOP profitable regardless of all of it will supply extra proof that Trump’s conduct has had much less of a downballot influence than you may assume.)
  • The consequence may give us a sign about how lengthy Wednesday’s Electoral College problem on Capitol Hill goes to final. (Defeats in Georgia gained’t precisely energize the Republicans difficult the result.)
  • And, like we noticed in November, don’t be stunned if it takes a day or extra to find out the winners in these two runoffs.

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As the AP reminds us, Georgia doesn’t depend ballots — together with absentee ones — till the polling locations shut at 7:00 p.m. ET, though the state does require election officers to start processing the absentee ballots.

So let’s be affected person. After all, NBC News didn’t challenge Biden’s 12,000-vote victory in Georgia till Nov. 13, which was 10 days after Election Day.

Watching the margins and the key counties

But when the votes begin coming in, we will monitor how the 2 Democratic candidates — Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock — are faring in comparison with margins we noticed in the important thing counties again in November.

In November’s preliminary race, GOP Sen. David Perdue ran forward of Ossoff within the state, 49.7 p.c to 48.0 p.c.

So if Ossoff and Warnock are outperforming Ossoff’s margins from November, they’re doubtless going to win.

If they’re not, they’re going to lose.

Here are the important thing county-by-county splits in that preliminary Perdue-vs.-Ossoff contest:

The Atlanta Suburbs

  • Fulton (probably the most vote-rich county within the state): Ossoff 69.8 p.c, Perdue 28.1 p.c
  • Gwinnett (exterior Atlanta’s metropolis limits): Ossoff 56.8 p.c, Perdue 40.6 p.c
  • Cobb (one other Atlanta suburb): Ossoff 54.0 p.c, Perdue 43.4 p.c
  • DeKalb (accommodates about 10 p.c of Atlanta; majority black): Ossoff 81.2 p.c, Perdue 16.8 p.c
  • Henry (Atlanta suburb): Ossoff 58.8 p.c. Perdue 39.0 p.c
  • Clayton (was represented by the late John Lewis): Ossoff 84.4 p.c,

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