opinion | In the United States, a “high pressure” growth regime

By Nicolas Goetzmann (chief economist of Financière de la Cité, columnist for “Echos”))

Published on 14 Jan. 2022 at 8: 30Updated 14 Jan. 2022 at 8: 31

On 27 next January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of US GDP for the 4th th quarter 2020, and this one promises to be historic. While the nominal GDP figure for the 3th quarter had already marked a return of the American economy to its pre-crisis trajectory, c It is a going beyond this which is now envisaged. Thus, the end of this year 2020 could see the GDP of the United States post a level higher than that which would have been recorded on the same date if the pandemic did not had not taken place.

Initially, the forecasts made in December 2020 by the Federal Reserve of the United States anticipated a nominal growth of 6% for 2020, but it is a figure close to 11% which is currently expected, i.e. an outperformance of more than 80%. However, it had fallen “only” by 1% during the year 2020.